Quantifying shrub encroachment through soil seed bank analysis in the Ethiopian highlands.

This study aimed to understand the impact of shrub encroachment on native species in the Guassa Community Conservation Area in Ethiopia. We assessed the soil seed bank composition and density across different elevations and aspects, and management systems within the area. The vegetation was stratified and eight blocks were selected across a range of elevation (<3350 m and >3350 m) and aspect (northeast, northwest, southeast, southwest). Within each block we established twenty 5m x 5m plots for a total of 160. We then collected soil samples from five subplots (1 m x 1 m) at three depths (0-3 cm, 3-6 cm and 6-9 cm) for a total of 480 samples, which were established in pots in greenhouse. We calculated species abundance by totaling the number of seedlings that emerged from each sample. To determine the variability in the abundance of Festuca macrophylla and Helichrysum splendidum in the soil seed bank along altitudinal gradient, we used two-way ANOVA using SAS statistical software version 9.0.1. Shannon diversity index was used to determine species diversity in the soil seedbank. After counting all the seeds, we identified 74 plant species represented in the soil seedbank which belong to 55 genera and 23 families. Eleven species are endemic to Ethiopia. At the lower elevation range, the effects of aspect (P <0.0088) and soil depth (P <0.005) are not significant to determine the abundance of seeds of H. splendidum and F. macrophylla. But when the factors are segregated, both aspect and soil depth play a significant role (p<0.0001) regarding the abundance of the seeds of the competing species at lower elevation. At higher elevation, only the effect of soil depth is significant (P<0.0001) for determining the abundance of H. splendidum. Soil depth and aspect have no significant effects on soil seed bank abundance at this elevation.

Conservation implications of mapping the potential distribution of an Ethiopian endemic versatile medicinal plant, Echinops kebericho Mesfin.

Echinops kebericho is a narrow-range multipurpose medicinal plant confined to Ethiopia. Intense land use change and overharvesting for traditional medicine have resulted in narrow distributions of its populations. It is a threatened species with a decreasing population trend. This study aims to map its potential distribution, which is key to guide conservation efforts and sustainable use. We modeled the potential distribution of E. kebercho using the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) employing 11 less correlated predictor variables by calibrating the model at two complexity levels and replicating each model 10 times using a cross validation technique. We projected the models into the whole of Ethiopia and produced binary presence-absence maps by classifying the average map from both complexity levels applying three threshold criteria and ensembling the resulting maps into one for the final result. We mapped suitable habitat predicted with high certainty and identified local districts where E. kebericho can be cultivated or introduced to enhance its conservation. We estimated that E.kebercho has about 137,925 km2 of suitable habitat, mainly concentrated in the western highlands of the Ethiopian mountains. Our models at both complexity levels had high average performances, AUC values of 0.925 for the complex model and 0.907 for the simpler model. The variations in performance among the 10 model replicates were not remarkable, an AUC standard deviation of 0.040 for complex and 0.046 for simple model. Although E. kebericho is locally confined, our models predicted that it has a remarkably wider potential distribution area. We recommend introducing E. kebericho to these areas to improve its conservation status and tap its multiple benefits on a sustainable basis. Locally confined threatened plants and animals likely have wider potential distributions than their actual distributions and thus similar methodology can be applied for their conservation.

Collaborative agent-based modeling for managing shrub encroachment in an Afroalpine grassland.

We co-designed an agent-based model of an Afroalpine grassland in Ethiopia that is experiencing unwanted shrub encroachment. The goal was to enable managers of a community conservation area to better understand the drivers of shrub encroachment and to test possible management actions for controlling shrubs. Due to limited site-specific data, we parameterized this model using insights from published literature, remote sensing, and expert opinion from scientists and local managers. We therefore sought to explore potential future scenarios rather than make highly accurate predictions, focusing on facilitating discussions and learning among the diverse co-management team. We evaluated three social-ecological scenarios with our model, examining: (1) the impact of changing precipitation regimes on vegetation, (2) whether changing the frequency of guassa grass harvests would improve the long-term sustainability of the grassland, and (3) whether the combination of grass harvest and shrub removal would affect shrub encroachment. We found that the model was highly sensitive to the amount of grass harvested each year for local use. Our results indicate that the guassa grass was more resilient than shrubs during persistent dry climatic conditions, whereas a reduction in only the early spring rains (known as the "belg") resulted in considerable loss of grass biomass. While our modeling results lacked the quantitative specificity desired by managers, participants in the collaborative modeling process learned new approaches to planning and management of the conservation area and expanded their knowledge of the ecological complexity of the system. Several participants used the model as a boundary object, interpreting it in ways that reinforced their cultural values and goals for the conservation area. Our work highlights the lack of detailed scientific knowledge of Afroalpine ecosystems, and urges managers to reconnect with traditional ecological management of the conservation area in their pursuit of shrub encroachment solutions. The decline or absence of the belg rains is becoming increasingly common in the Ethiopian highlands, and our results underscore the need for more widespread understanding of how this changing climatic regime impacts local environmental management. This work lays a foundation for social-ecological research to improve both understanding and management of these highly threatened ecosystems.